Probabilistic Model
Sandbox Mode
Overall:
66.7%
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PUBLISHED RESEARCH
1,000+ HUMAN-RESEARCHED ASSETS
BAYESIAN HIERARCHY + MONTE CARLO
Simulate an event
Play around — simulate events and watch the likelihood of success shift.
Core Factors
Geological Promise
75
Management Quality
75
Access to Capital
75
Local Infrastructure
75
SLO & Reputation
Local Reputation
75
Policy Climate
Manual Input / Other (Index%)
Manual Policy Score
65
Community Sensitivity (Higher = Harder)
20
Mine Type
Open Pit
Uncertainty
Confidence
40
Higher = tighter interval (more confidence).
66.7%
LIKELIHOOD OF SUCCESS
50.9 – 82.5%
80% CREDIBLE INTERVAL
0%
LIVE MONTE CARLO
100%
Overall Success
Phase Probabilities & Outcome
SLO Probability
76.9%
Reputation (High W) × Mine type
Permit ≤ T
76.6%
SLO, Infra (Low), Mgmt
Finance
75.1%
Capital (Low), Geology, Mgmt
Build
75%
Mgmt, Infra (Low), Geology
Ramp-up
75%
Mgmt, Geology, Infra (Low)